(All times listed are in GMT)

The week ahead is packed with high-impact economic events that could drive significant volatility across major currency pairs. With central bank decisions, key inflation data, and growth figures on the agenda, traders should prepare for potential sharp price movements, especially in USD, AUD, and GBP pairs.

Monday, August 11

• JPY – Bank Holiday

  Japan’s financial markets will be closed, leading to lower liquidity in the Asian session. While price action may be muted during Tokyo hours, traders should remain alert for spillover volatility from other markets.

 

Tuesday, August 12 – RBA in Focus

04:30 GMT (AUD)

• Cash Rate – Forecast: 3.60% | Previous: 3.85%

  The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. A dovish move could put pressure on the Australian dollar, especially if accompanied by cautious forward guidance.

• RBA Monetary Policy Statement & Rate Statement – Key insights into the bank’s economic outlook, inflation projections, and policy stance.

05:30 GMT (AUD)

• RBA Press Conference – Governor’s comments could trigger sharp intraday volatility.

13:30 GMT (USD)

• Core CPI m/m – Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%

• CPI m/m – Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%

• CPI y/y – Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.7%

  Inflation data will be closely watched by the Fed and market participants. Any upside surprise could strengthen USD on expectations of tighter monetary policy.

 

Wednesday, August 13

01:30 GMT (AUD)

• Wage Price Index q/q – Forecast: 0.8% | Previous: 0.9%

  Wage growth is a critical inflation driver. A stronger reading could partially offset the impact of the RBA rate cut.

 

Thursday, August 14

01:30 GMT (AUD)

• Employment Change – Forecast: 25.3K | Previous: 2.0K

• Unemployment Rate – Forecast: 4.2% | Previous: 4.3%

  Robust labor data could support the AUD even after a rate cut, signaling underlying economic strength.

06:00 GMT (GBP)

• GDP m/m – Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.1%

  Positive growth could provide short-term support for GBP, especially if it marks a turnaround from recent weakness.

12:30 GMT (USD)

• Core PPI m/m – Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%

• PPI m/m – Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%

• Unemployment Claims – Forecast: 220K | Previous: 226K

  Rising producer prices can be an early sign of future consumer inflation, while jobless claims gauge labor market health.

 

Friday, August 15

• EUR – French Bank Holiday

• EUR – Italian Bank Holiday

  Expect lighter liquidity during the European session.

12:30 GMT (USD)

• Core Retail Sales m/m – Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.5%

• Retail Sales m/m – Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.6%

  Consumer spending is a key driver of US GDP; strong results may bolster the dollar.

14:00 GMT (USD)

• Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – Forecast: 62.2 | Previous: 61.7

• Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations – Forecast: 4.5% | Previous: 4.5%

  These readings provide insight into consumer confidence and inflation outlook, which can influence Fed policy.

 

Key Takeaways for Traders

• AUD: Volatility likely elevated with the RBA decision, wage data, and employment figures.

• USD: CPI, PPI, and retail sales could trigger significant moves.

• GBP: Watch Thursday’s GDP for potential recovery signs.

• EUR: Bank holidays may thin liquidity, causing sharper price reactions.

 

💡 Trading Tip:

Plan trades around these releases, reduce position sizes before high-impact events, and be ready for sharp volatility spikes in the minutes following data releases.